When economists start sounding alarms about a potential recession, most people turn to traditional indicators: GDP decline, rising unemployment, and stock market drops. But there’s a whole world of quirky, seemingly unrelated signs that can suggest an economic downturn is coming.
They’re strange, sometimes funny, and occasionally eerily accurate. These signals are often referred to as bizarre indicators, odd indicators, or unusual recession indicators, highlighting their unconventional nature compared to standard economic measures. These so-called “weird recession indicators” often reflect subtle shifts in consumer behavior. And while none of them are foolproof, they offer a fascinating glimpse into how people react when the economy tightens up.
Here are 15 of the most bizarre (but surprisingly telling) indicators of a looming recession—and the psychology and economics behind each. These economic indicators can sometimes signal trouble ahead of traditional data, providing warning signs ahead of more established economic statistics.
1. The Lipstick Index
When luxury items are out of reach, people still crave a little indulgence. That’s where the lipstick index comes in. The Lipstick Index is an interesting and unconventional economic signal, highlighting quirky shifts in consumer sentiment during downturns. Coined by Estée Lauder’s Leonard Lauder in the early 2000s, it posits that during economic downturns, sales of small luxuries like lipstick rise.
Why? It’s psychological. Consumers still want to treat themselves, but they downsize their spending. Lipstick sales tend to increase when economic conditions get worse, as a $10 lipstick feels extravagant—but accessible. Lipstick sales rose after 9/11, during the 2008 recession, and even during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. While not consistent across all downturns (hello, Zoom era and face masks), this indicator has shown surprising relevance.
2. The Underwear Index
Former Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan believed that men’s underwear sales revealed hidden truths about the economy. This idea is known as the ‘men’s underwear index’, which tracks changes in men’s underwear sales as an economic signal.
The logic is simple: men’s underwear is a basic, private necessity, and the indicator is based on the idea that men delay the purchase of new underwear during downturns. When people stop replacing the basics, it means they’re tightening their belts everywhere else. Data from 2008 and 2020 supports this—men’s underwear sales dipped during downturns and rebounded as the economy improved.
3. The Hemline Index
First floated by economist George Taylor in the 1920s, the hemline index links skirt lengths to economic health. According to this theory, when times are good, hemlines rise; when times are bad, skirts get longer. Skirt lengths tend to fall during economic downturns, reflecting a decline in consumer confidence. There is also a noted correlation between skirt lengths and economic growth, with shorter skirts often appearing during periods of expansion.
The idea stems from fashion reflecting consumer confidence. Mini skirts signal boldness and optimism; maxi skirts indicate caution and conservatism. While some have questioned whether the hemline index is a reliable indicator, its patterns have been observed across decades. Notably, skirt lengths have been linked to movements in stocks, with hemlines rising and falling in tandem with the stock market. During the Great Depression, for example, hemlines dropped significantly as the economy contracted, illustrating how major downturns can influence both fashion and broader economic indicators. Fashion trends in the ‘60s, ‘70s, and even post-pandemic have followed this pattern eerily well.
4. The Cardboard Box Indicator
Cardboard might not seem exciting, but it’s essential to commerce. If manufacturers are shipping fewer goods, that’s a bad sign. Demand for cardboard boxes is directly tied to consumer purchasing. The number of boxes companies sell can reflect overall economic health.
The Fibre Box Association tracks this closely. In 2009 and again in 2022, shipments plummeted alongside broader economic contractions, with a significant decline observed in the fourth quarter of those years. When box orders go down, it usually means businesses are preparing for fewer sales—and that’s a recession whisper.
5. Mini Liquor Bottles
When people get financially pinched, they don’t stop drinking—they drink smaller. Concerned consumers often opt for mini bottles as a cost-saving measure. That’s the thinking behind the rise in mini liquor bottle sales during economic uncertainty.
Brown-Forman, the company behind Jack Daniel’s, has noted increased demand for airplane-sized alcohol bottles when inflation spikes. It’s a shift from big splurges to small comforts. Mini bottles are cheaper, less wasteful, and feel like a “treat” even when budgets are tight.
6. Diaper Rash Ointment Sales
This one’s grim: when money’s tight, some parents stretch diaper usage to save cash. That leads to more rashes—and an increase in ointment sales. This effort to cut costs during tough times shows how families adapt their routines in response to economic uncertainty.
This was tracked in 2011 during a rough economic stretch. Diaper purchases slowed while sales of diaper rash ointments rose. It’s a heartbreaking but real sign that financial stress is impacting even the most basic care routines.
7. Champagne Index
Unlike lipstick, Champagne isn’t considered an affordable luxury. It’s a celebration drink—associated with weddings, parties, and promotions. Changes in Champagne prices can also serve as a signal of economic health, reflecting shifts in consumer confidence and spending power. When people stop buying bubbly, it’s a clear sign they’re cutting out life’s “extras.”
Sales dipped dramatically after 2008 and again during COVID’s early days. And when they picked back up in 2021? It aligned with reopened travel and more optimistic consumer sentiment. Champagne sales are a surprisingly useful celebration barometer.
8. The Stripper Index
This one started as a joke—but it turns out exotic dancers have keen economic instincts. When tips at strip clubs drop, it’s often an early sign of reduced discretionary spending.
Tips are the first thing to go when wallets shrink. And since entertainers rely on those tips, they often notice the economic downturn before the data catches up. Some even report when “regulars” stop showing up, it means layoffs have already begun. For example, during the 2008 financial crisis, several dancers reported a noticeable decline in tips and customer visits months before the recession was officially recognized.
9. Snack Food Declines
Comfort food is recession-proof… right? Not exactly. Snacks and fast food take a hit during deep downturns. Economic anxiety drives consumers to cut back on comfort foods, as they become more cautious with their spending.
General Mills and PepsiCo have both reported sales dips in snacks during economic uncertainty. Consumers tend to cook at home more and skip extras like chips or granola bars. Even pet snack sales decline, signaling a shift in priorities.
10. RV and Boat Sales
Big-ticket leisure items like recreational vehicles and boats are highly sensitive to consumer confidence. When people feel flush, they buy toys. When they don’t, these markets collapse.
The 2008 financial crisis saw a massive decline in RV sales, and the pattern repeated in 2023 as inflation spiked. This trend in RV and boat sales reflects shifts in consumer confidence, with declining sales signaling reduced willingness to spend on discretionary items during economic downturns. Watching RV dealerships and manufacturers is like reading the collective mood of middle-class America.
11. Hair Dye Sales
Salon visits drop when people are pinching pennies—but boxed hair dye sales often surge. DIY beauty becomes the norm during tough times. Even when disposable income increases, such as during the COVID-19 pandemic with government support, consumers may still choose at-home solutions due to uncertainty. Inexpensive hair color lets people feel polished without spending salon money. Like lipstick, it’s a way to maintain a sense of normalcy and control.
12. Google Searches for “Coupons” or “How to Budget”
Forget economists—ask Google. When searches for “coupons,” “cheap groceries,” or “how to save money” spike, it often means people are feeling financially squeezed. Google Trends data has predicted multiple downturns. These search trends can offer a glimpse into the economic future and signal when a recession may be on the horizon. It reflects real-time anxiety and behavioral shifts, making it a digital crystal ball of economic sentiment.
13. Decline in Dry Cleaning Services
Fewer people dry cleaning their clothes isn’t just a fashion choice—it’s a financial decision. Office work slows down, events get canceled, and people opt for wash-and-wear. Dry cleaning is a luxury more than a necessity, and as job insecurity grows, spending in this category shrinks. A rise in at-home laundry products usually goes hand in hand. Analysts often interpret declines in dry cleaning as a sign of economic stress.
14. DIY and Repair Store Sales Rise
Hardware stores like Lowe’s and Home Depot often see sales increase during downturns—not because people are building more, but because they’re fixing what they already have. Instead of buying new appliances, cars, or furniture, consumers opt to repair, repaint, and repurpose. It’s an economic slowdown survival tactic. Increased DIY and repair activity is just one of many factors analysts consider when looking for weird recession indicators.
15. Secondhand and Thrift Store Booms
When the economy tightens, resale explodes. Thrift stores, Facebook Marketplace, and consignment shops thrive during tough times. It’s part frugality, part sustainability, and part necessity. Watch Goodwill and eBay trends if you want to feel the economic pulse of middle America.
What Do These Indicators Really Mean?
Individually, these quirky trends may seem anecdotal. Tracking the course of these indicators can help investors and analysts anticipate economic shifts. But together, they reveal behavioral shifts that traditional data doesn’t always capture in real time. These indicators reflect what people do when money gets tight—and that often tells us more than any chart.
So the next time your friend says, “Hey, have you noticed more people are Googling coupons while skipping Champagne?”—you just might be in the early days of a downturn. Similar patterns were observed during the Great Recession, and these indicators have been tracked across different countries.
And if you’re a small business owner? Watch these signs like a hawk. The weird world of recession indicators might give you the head start you need to adjust your strategy and keep thriving no matter what the economy throws your way. Business Insider frequently highlights such unconventional economic signals, and companies and investors alike monitor these trends, just as many small businesses that found success during economic uncertainty have adapted and grown despite challenging conditions.
For more insights like this, keep up with the VMS blog—where small business meets big tech without the fluff.
